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【明理講堂2022年第53期】11-16西南財經大學陳梓麟副教授: Presidential Economic Approval Rating and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

時間:11月16日(星期三)下午14:30-16:00

地點:騰訊會議501-724-643

報告人:西南財經大學陳梓麟副教授

主講人簡介:

陳梓麟,西南財經大學金融學院副教授,主要研究領域為實證資產定價、行為金融和機器學習。論文發表或接收于《Journal of Financial Economics》,《Journal of Banking and Finance》,《Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control》等國際期刊。

報告內容簡介:

We construct a monthly presidential economic approval rating (PEAR) index from 1981 to 2019, by averaging ratings on the president's handling of the economy across various national polls. In the cross-section, stocks with high betas to changes in the PEAR index significantly underperform those with low betas by 1.00% per month in the future, on a risk-adjusted basis. The low PEAR beta premium persists up to one year, and is present in various sub-samples and even in other G7 countries. PEAR beta dynamically reveals a firm's perceived alignment to the incumbent president's economic policies and investors seem to misprice such an alignment.

(承辦:會計系、科研與學術交流中心)

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