題 目： Decision-making in safety investment interval: An improved basic safety investment decision model
主講人：趙秋紅
時(shí) 間：2017年12月14日 上午8：30
地 點(diǎn)：主樓216房間
主講人介紹：
趙秋紅，女，北京航空航天大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)偉德國(guó)際1946bv官網(wǎng)教授，博士生導(dǎo)師，北京航空航天大學(xué)學(xué)術(shù)委員會(huì)委員，中國(guó)系統(tǒng)工程學(xué)會(huì)常務(wù)理事、副秘書長(zhǎng)、應(yīng)急管理專業(yè)委員會(huì)主任委員、服務(wù)系統(tǒng)工程分會(huì)副主任委員；中國(guó)運(yùn)籌學(xué)會(huì)行為運(yùn)作管理分會(huì)常務(wù)理事；中國(guó)物流學(xué)會(huì)理事；城市安全運(yùn)行與應(yīng)急保障北京市國(guó)際科技合作基地主任。趙秋紅教授主要從事系統(tǒng)優(yōu)化、物流與供應(yīng)鏈管理、安全與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理等領(lǐng)域的理論與實(shí)踐研究工作，先后主持5項(xiàng)國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目（1項(xiàng)在研），已發(fā)表SCI 源期刊論文20余篇，出版論著5部。
內(nèi)容介紹：
Safety investment is a periodically work and it affects the safety condition of the company significantly. We consider the safety investment decision problem from a perspective of investment interval. Through describing safety investment amount and accident probability as a function of investment interval, an improved basic safety investment decision model is proposed. The model shows that the positive effect of safety investment amount on safety performance only exists when investment interval is shorter than a certain value. This finding explains the inconclusive results on the causal relationship between safety investment amount and safety performance found by many previous researches. The numerical analysis indicates that a short-term decision helps to reduce the accident probability. The failure frequency of the company’s safety system decreases the optimal investment interval significantly. The risk rating of the company does not affect the company’s safety investment decision. While the higher the loss brought by an accident is, the shorter the optimal investment interval and the lower the accident probability. The government can reduce accident probability through increasing the penalty cost, which is included in the accident loss. The findings help the company to make decision in safety investment from a novel perspective.
（承辦：管理工程系，科研與學(xué)術(shù)交流中心）
