題 目：A dynamic stochastic portfolio model for optimizing crop acreage and soil natural capital under multiple risks
主講人：從榮剛 博士（瑞典隆德大學(xué)環(huán)境與氣候研究中心 博士后 研究員）
時 間：2013年3月13日（周三） 上午 10：30
地 點：主樓六層會議室
主講人簡介：
從榮剛，中科院管理學(xué)博士，瑞典隆德大學(xué)環(huán)境與氣候研究中心研究員。瑞典農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟中心訪問學(xué)者，德國勃蘭登堡理工大學(xué)訪問科學(xué)家。在資源與環(huán)境經(jīng)濟學(xué)領(lǐng)域國內(nèi)外學(xué)術(shù)期刊發(fā)表論文三十余篇，著作二部，任International Journal of Advancements in Computing Technology, Journal of Next Generation Information Technology等國際雜志的編委，歐洲農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟學(xué)家學(xué)會會員，歐洲環(huán)境與資源經(jīng)濟學(xué)家學(xué)會會員，中國優(yōu)選法統(tǒng)籌法與經(jīng)濟數(shù)學(xué)研究會會員。曾為中國石油公司，國家電網(wǎng)公司等企業(yè)進(jìn)行戰(zhàn)略咨詢服務(wù)。
內(nèi)容簡介：
Ecologists have long argued that biodiversity is important for stability and resilience of ecosystems, and hence can provide natural insurance. In this article we investigate whether conservation of arable soil biodiversity could be an effective strategy for controlling agricultural risks. We do this by constructing a dynamic stochastic portfolio model for optimizing crop acreage and the stock of soil organic carbon (a proxy for soil biodiversity) under multiple risks. The approach builds on portfolio theory, crop production functions and probability simulations using Copula methods. The model takes into account weather risk, market risk and the state transition of soil carbon. The model and results shed new light on crop planning and soil management in the face of agricultural risks. First, over 70% of crop production risk can be reduced at the expense of 30% of revenue by diversifying acreage over as few as four crops, implying a “70-30” rule in respect of the asymmetry between risk and revenue; second, conservation (investing in soil carbon) and convergence (reducing the variance of soil carbon) are two potentially important risk management strategies for farmers in a dynamic context; and finally active management of soil carbon can both increase farm profit and reduce agricultural risk in the future.
