題 目：Firm-Level and Industry-Level Bullwhip Effects in U.S. Economy: Theory and Empirical Support
主講人：岳曉航博士(美國威斯康辛大學密爾沃基校園)
時 間：2013年6月17日（星期一）下午2:00
地 點：主樓418會議室
主講人簡介：
美國威斯康辛大學密爾沃基校園Lubar商學院副教授（終身教職）、博士，長期從事供應鏈管理、制造系統協調與設計、運作優化與信息披露等。美國供應鏈管理協會、管理科學及運籌學協會和運營管理協會會員，擔任《Production and Operations Management》（UT Dallas 24種管理學頂級期刊，運作管理方向頂級期刊）編委。已在《Production and Operations Management》、《IIE Transactions》、《OMEGA: An International Journal of Management Science》、《European Journal of Operational Research》和《International Journal of Production Economics》等國際知名SCI刊源上發表論文30余篇?，F為Operations Research(OR)、IIE Transactions(IIE)、Production & Operations Management (POMS)?、Journal of Operations Management (JOM)?等??多個國際知名期刊的審稿人。
內容簡介：
Theoretical studies of bullwhip effect (BWE) in supply chains have focused on models of a single firm making its ordering decisions based on its own demand history. On the other hand, in an industry that has several firms, a firm’s demand in a period may be influenced not only by its own demand history but also by that of the industry and empirical data suggest that. This paper examines BWE when a firm’s demand in a period is correlated with its own demand (auto correlation) and with the industry demand in the previous period (cross correlation). Our analysis shows that the sign and magnitude of the cross correlation affect BWE at both firm and industry levels. Furthermore, cross correlation may have opposite effects on BWE at these two levels, which may partly explain the mixed observations of BWE at firm and industry levels. Results from an extensive empirical study generally support the theoretical predictions of our model.
