題目：The respective role of public support and learning in the development of new capacities for renewable energies: the case of wind power in Europe
主講人：Marc Baudry professor（the University of Paris Ouest Nanterre la Defense）
時間：2014年10月22日上午10:00
地點：主樓六層
主講人簡介：
Marc Baudry is currently professor of economics at the University of Paris Ouest Nanterre la Defense. He is also in charge of the Innovation Pole at the Climate Economics Chair. His research was initially in the field of environmental and resource economics with a special emphasis on the real option analysis of innovation in less polluting technologies and technological change induced by environmental policies. He gradually expanded his work to the study of patents and innovation economics. He has published articles in international peer-reviewed journals both in the field of environmental and resource economics and in the field of industrial economics.
內容簡介：
During the last two decades, most European countries have put in place public support to the development of renewable energies. At a first glance, it seems that these policies have succeeded in terms of installed capacity growth. Nevertheless, the induced burden of financing has increased so dramatically that the social acceptability of these policies is put into danger. Therefore, most European governments are currently reforming their support policy. They are also driven by more stringent rules recently enacted by the European Commission as regards state aids in favor of the environment and energy. Among the industries that have specialized in renewable energy equipment, there is a fear that these reforms induce a slowdown of investments in new capacities. Nevertheless, from an econometric point of view, it is unclear how much public support has contributed to the development of installed capacities. This paper more specifically attempts to disentangle to respective roles of economic incentives and of learning.This paper more specifically attempts to disentangle the respective roles of economic incentives and of learning. For this purpose, a microeconomic modelling of the diffusion of renewable energies is proposed. It departs from standard holistic models of technology diffusion by three characteristics. Firstly, the key determinant of investment decisions is the return on investment. Secondly, learning and return on investment are tightly linked. Thirdly, heterogeneity among investment projects is explicitly taken into account. It allows to obtain a prediction model of aggregated installed capacities that is consistent with rational decisions at the microeconomic level. The model is estimated on data for wind power in several European countries. The computed return on investment accounts for heterogeneity in the type of support (Feed-in Tariffs, public aid for financing...) and is obtained country by country and year by year. Once estimated, the model is used to conduct a counterfactual analysis of the role of public support and the role of learning. It is found that learning has been at least as important as public aid for stimulating investments in new capacities.
